How Bad are the Beats? Pro Poker Tips by Steve Brecher

While playing on Full Tilt Poker, I have said that there are three topics I won't discuss in table chat; politics, religion, and whether online poker is rigged. That's because many people's opinions on those topics are hardened and not amenable to friendly or productive discussion.

Away from the table, I'll venture a couple of comments about improbable events in poker. While not direct instruction in the tactics and strategy of play, these comments may help you take "bad beats" in stride -- and that, in turn, is an essential part of poker maturity.

First, let's consider what most would view as a typical "bad beat" -- a lower pocket pair winning against a higher pocket pair in hold 'em, such as KK beating AA. When those hands share one suit, the chance of the worse hand winning is about 18%. The chance of the lower pair winning twice -- that is, the next two times that such hands happen to go against each other -- is about 3%. If in one session of play, a lower pocket pair beat a higher pocket pair twice, that might seem a little, well, weird to some players.

Consider another situation involving chance. When two dice are thrown, the chance of rolling "snake eyes" (1-1) is about 3% -- about the same as a lower pocket pair beating a higher pocket pair twice.

Suppose there were 600 craps tables using standard, unaltered dice with nine players around each table -- a total of 5,400 players -- and these tables operated for a three-hour "session." How many players would observe snake eyes being thrown at least once? The statistical expectation result is not important. The point is that it's easy to intuitively see that a large number of players would.

Further, do you think some players might see snake eyes thrown several times in an evening -- say, three or four times? (That is equivalent to six or eight poker "bad beats.") And if some of those players would be inclined to report their observation on forums and in chat, then it might seem to some as if the dice were "fixed."

Let's go back to poker. Recently, I played a hand of No-Limit Hold 'Em on Full Tilt Poker. An opponent four seats in front of the button open-raised pre-flop. It was folded around to me in the big blind, and I called. I semi-bluff check-raised the flop, continued with a semi-bluff bet on the turn, was raised all-in, and called the raise. I made my draw on the river. After the hand my opponent chatted:

opponent: ur horrible steve
opponent: why the [****] did u call that?
opponent: horrible that this site rewards that

(Confidential to opponent: I know these comments were made in the heat of the moment after a big loss and don't necessarily reflect your considered view.)

Let's take a look at my call on the turn. I held Ad Td; my opponent held Kd Kc. The board was Qd 9d 7h Jc.

With my opponent's actual holding, I had 16 outs to win the pot on the river, making me a 1.75 to 1 underdog. Of course, it could have been worse for me against other holdings, but even the worst case for me would have been to be up against K-T (a made straight), and then I would have been only a 3 to 1 underdog.

After my bet and the opponent's all in-raise, I was getting pot odds of 3.7 to 1 to call, so the call is clearly correct. But it seemed to my opponent -- and to at least one observer -- that I made a bad call, and that my winning with a 36% chance to do so when I called was a bad beat for my opponent.

The moral of this story: While "bad beats" (low-probability events) do occur, sometimes a closer examination of a poker hand can change first impressions and allow you to continue to play with a cooler, clearer head.

Steve Brecher

Play with Steve Brecher at Full Tilt Poker

Third Street in Seven Stud - Pro Poker Tips by Perry Friedman

For those of you who are unfamiliar with seven-card stud, there are some betting quirks in the game that you should understand. During the opening round of betting (also called "third street"), the player with the lowest up card is forced to act first. There are two choices: Bet the "bring-in" amount (which is usually one-third of the full bet) or "complete" the bet (make it a full bet). If the player chooses to bet the bring-in amount, another player has the option of completing the bet. Note that this is not considered a raise, because it is only increasing the initial bet to one full bet. This means there is still a bet and three remaining raises allowed during the opening round.

You should almost never bring in for a completion in Stud Hi, except in very rare tournament situations. There are a number of reasons for this, including the need to conceal the strength of your hand and the desire to keep your options open later in the round.

If you make it a habit only to bring in for a completion when you have a good hand, an astute player will pick up on this and will steal from you every time you don't complete the bring-in. Conversely, if you always complete the bet, you are throwing away money when you are forced in, which is usually when you have a bad hand since you already have the lowest up card.

Furthermore, bringing in for a completion limits your betting options. If you bring in for the minimum and someone else completes the bet, you can raise back for a full bet, whereas your opponent can only complete for a partial bet. You can also decide to slow play your hand if someone completes. Completing the bet exposes you to being raised back a full bet. By always bringing in for the minimum, you do not give away the strength of your hand and leave your options open on third street.

When playing in a live ring game, I will seldom even look at my down cards when I am the bring-in. Whether or not you look at your cards first is a matter of personal preference, but by not looking, you can't give a tell. However, one of the important aspects of stud is being aware of what cards have already been dealt out to your opponents. If you decide not to look at your hole cards, you should still peruse the table and take inventory of what cards are already out.

For some people, cataloguing all the upcards may be a tedious and exhausting process, and they will prefer to look at their downcards first so that they immediately know which key cards will improve their hand, or if they even have a playable hand at all. The only flaw with this shortcut is that when you do have a playable hand, you need to be aware of what your key cards are and know which cards will help or hurt your opponents. I recommend getting in the habit of always mentally keeping track of all of the up cards.

In heads-up play, keeping track of the cards is much simpler; they are always there to see and you don't need to remember who folded which cards. This makes it even less important to check your down cards before acting.

In online play, you will always be aware of your down cards, but you should still get in the practice of tracking your opponents' cards. One way to keep the game interesting - and to work on your skills at the same time - is to track all the cards even when you are out of the hand. As the hand progresses, try to figure out what hands your opponents are likely playing. At the showdown, you can see how well your reading skills are coming along.

Stud can be a very enjoyable and interesting game, but it relies less on intuition and more on keeping your mind focused and your eyes open.

Perry Friedman

Play Online Poker with Perry Friedman at Full Tilt Poker

Flopping A Monster - Pro Poker Tips by Richard Brodie

When I started playing poker, I would get so excited when I flopped a big hand that I forgot my main goal: Win as many chips as possible. When I had marginal hands, I would think hard about what my opponent had and whether I could beat it. But when I had a big hand, I just wanted to get all my chips in the middle.

Big mistake.

Big hands can mean big pots. But, with a big hand, it's even more important to strategize and figure out how strong your opponent is. If you think he's weak, you can slow play the hand, perhaps getting him to call a bet thinking you're bluffing or, better yet, inducing him to bluff himself. If you think he's strong, you can let him bet your hand for you, raising on the turn or river to extract maximum value.

In the 2003 Borgata Poker Open, I mixed it up with a small under-the-gun raise with Ten-Nine of Diamonds. I got two callers, including Bobby Thompson in the small blind. The flop came Eight-Seven-Six, giving me the nut straight. Bobby led out with a pot-sized bet and we both called. The turn was an Ace and he bet again. I still had the nuts and, with my inexperience, didn't think enough about what my opponents could have. Instead, I got greedy and just called again, hoping to get a call from the third player.

If I had thought about it, I would have put Bobby on at least two pair and the third player on a straight draw with something like Jack-Ten. I should have moved in at that point, pricing out the straight draw and figuring Bobby would have to call. Instead, I just called and the third player folded. When a second Ace came on the river and Bobby pushed in, I had a very tough decision and ended up putting my chips in dead as he turned over pocket Sixes for the full house.
If I had put my money in on the turn, the results may have been different. By putting Bobby to the tough decision to call an all-in, I might have priced him out of the hand.

The next year in the same event, I had the very aggressive Jimmy-Jimmy Cha on my right. He made a late-position raise and I re-raised with pocket Tens. He called and we were heads-up. The flop came Ten high with two Spades, once again giving me the nuts. This time, though, I thought about what he might have. Nines, Jacks, and Queens were definite possibilities. If not, he could easily have over cards. Jimmy checked - not an unusual play given that I had taken the lead before the flop. I decided because he was so aggressive, I'd go ahead and bet the hand rather than slow play it. Sure enough, he check-raised me all in and I called. This time I went broke the right way, with all my chips in as a three-to-one favorite against his flush draw.

Then there's always the chance you're beat with an even bigger hand. In a televised tournament at the Plaza, I raised with pocket Tens and got called by the big blind. The flop came Queen-Queen-Ten, giving me a full house. But my opponent check-called my flop bet with such a Hollywood act that I put him on at least a Queen. A King came on the turn and he check-raised me. I could beat Ace-Queen or Queen-Jack but not King-Queen or Queen-Ten, so I slowed down and just called. When he made a small bet on the river I just called, suspecting I was beat and, sure enough, he turned over Queen-Ten for a bigger full house. I had flopped a monster and was drawing dead! By analyzing his play and getting a read, I saved valuable chips and went on to the final table.

So don't let the excitement of flopping a monster make you forget about putting your opponent on a hand. A lot of chips move around during these hands and you want them moving into your stack.

Richard Brodie

Play Online Poker with Richard Brodie at

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Our Favorite Poker Books - Poker Tips by Chris Ferguson

In recent months, many of our players have asked for suggestions on what poker books provide the best insights into the game. Being curious ourselves, we put the question to our pros and the answers we got back included some long-time favorites, along with a few surprises.

While our pros all have poker books that they like, not all of them believe that reading about poker theory is essential to improving their play. In fact, a few of our pros expressed sentiments along these lines:

We're not big fans of poker books. Once you get the basics down, is there something you can read that will drastically change your outlook on poker? Probably not. If there were a secret formula that would guarantee you'd always win, or one certain technique to win the most money, wouldn't everyone be playing that way already? The best teacher is experience. Choose a playing style and game mentality that fits your style, then get out there and actively think about the game. See what works for you and what doesn't. No book will be as effective as your own thought process.

Still, many of our pros do have some suggestions about which titles you might want to add to your personal library.

Chris Ferguson believes David Sklansky's Hold 'em for the Advanced Player and Theory of Poker are perhaps the two best books out there. Both of Doyle Brunson's Super System books, and Mike Caro's Book of Tells have helped his game, too.

Steve Brecher agrees with "Jesus" about Sklansky's Theory of Poker for its idea of the semi-bluff and its analysis of the concept of odds in poker. Sklansky's Hold 'em for the Advanced Player and the rest of the Advanced Player series are also solid reads.

Brecher also likes Doyle Brunson's chapter on No-Limit Hold 'em in his Super System for its emphasis on the importance of implied odds (although that's Sklansky's phrase, not Brunson's).
Erik Seidel notes that he hasn't read many of the poker books out there, but his all-time favorite is The Biggest Game in Town by Al Alvarez.

Being friendly with Phil Gordon, Perry Friedman has gotten to read an advance copy of Phil's Little Green Book (due out in October), which he thinks provides the best example of how to teach people to think about the game. He adds that both of Dan Harrington's books are filled with incredible advice for tournament play.

When it comes to "non-strategy" books, the pros' choices are as varied as their playing styles at the table.

Howard Lederer says, "I've recently started reading some books on Zen Buddhism. Zen has always been associated with the fine arts of flower arranging, calligraphy, and tea making. But there is also quite a tradition of Zen in swordsmanship and archery. Through reading these books and, in particular, Zen in the Art of Archery, I have a greater understanding of the process one goes through to master an art form. And poker is most certainly an art form."

Other more poker-related titles on our pros' bookshelves include Positively Fifth Street by James McManus, The Professor, the Banker and the Suicide King by Michael Craig, and the recently published Tales from the Tiltboys by the Tiltboys. They're also looking forward to reading Nolan Dalla's biography of Stu Ungar, One of a Kind.

It's safe to say that the books listed above will provide you with an eclectic and comprehensive view of the strategies, techniques, and personality traits that can help you become a winning player. So enjoy these books, and good luck at the table.

Chris Ferguson

Play poker with Chris Ferguson at Full Tilt Poker

Holding On To Your Winnings - Pro Poker Tips by Aaron Bartley

One of the most important poker lessons has nothing to do with how to play Aces in late position or how to adjust for the maniac in seat three. It's how to manage your money in a way that will make it grow as quickly as possible with minimal risk.


Some of the most highly skilled players in the game have gone broke (repeatedly) simply because they played too high, too fast, too often. How can we make sure this problem never happens to us? It isn't a matter of smarts, but rather, one of discipline.

The most important step is to be honest with yourself. You should know your relative skill level at all times. Suppose you're a $1/$2 No-Limit Hold 'em player who's had a great night, and you're toying with taking a shot at the $5/$10 game. Your bankroll is up to $1,500, but you would need to bring at least $500 to the table in order to play comfortably at the higher level.



Why would you risk putting a third of your bankroll on the table to play in the $5/$10 game? For starters, your bankroll isn't big enough for the stake; more importantly, you also need to consider that the skill level of the $5/$10 players is greater than the competition you're used to. (That's not always true, of course. There are some very skilled $1/$2 players and some weak $5/$10 players, but it's not unreasonable to assume that the higher-level games are filled with better players.)

This is where self-control comes in. One slip-up can spell disaster for a bankroll, and watching six months of hard work disappear in six hours of foolish play is enough to crush anyone's spirits.
The safest course of action is to continue doing what you're doing. You're beating the $1/$2 game for a tidy profit every week - stay right where you are. Continue proving that you can beat the game. While you're doing that, your bankroll should grow accordingly. Beating a game for six days is proof of very little. Beating the same game for six months is better evidence that you are a winning player.

Start tracking your results. You can buy tracking software or easily create a database of your own. Put in all of your information after each time you play - limits, time at the tables, profits/losses. Go over your information every few weeks, both for your recent play and for your entire poker lifetime. Try to spot bad trends before they get out of hand. If you've been playing well at a certain level over a long period of time, only then should you consider moving up to the next highest level.

Above all, know where your money is at all times and how it is being used. Ask yourself, "Is this too much risk for me considering my current bankroll?" If the answer is yes, do the responsible thing and change tables. Months later, you'll be thankful you did.

by

Aaron Bartley



Play Poker with Aaron Bartley at FullTiltPoker.com

No-limit by the Numbers - Pro Poker Tips by Andy Bloch

I get asked a lot of poker strategy questions, from beginner to advanced. Some are easy, but some involve the kind of math I can't always do off the top of my head. When that happens, I rely on one of a number of free tools to calculate the probability of winning the hand.

Here's an example based on a hand posted on a website I run:

Our hero was playing at a small stakes No-Limit table online, with $.25-$.50 blinds. At the start of the hand, he had $44. He was dealt Ad-Td and raised to $2. Both blinds called. The flop was Kd-Jd-2c, giving our hero a royal flush draw. The big blind bet $2, hero raised $2 more, the next player called, and the big blind (with more chips than our hero) re-raised all-in.

Should our hero call with his last $38? Let's assume the third player will fold. If our hero were to call and win, he'd be up to $94 (the $18 in the pot, plus his $38 and his opponent's $38). If he wins the hand four times out of 10, on the average he'd have $37.60 after the hand ($94 multiplied by four, and divided by 10). In poker, it's the long run that matters, so he should only call if his probability of winning is greater than 40%. Now he needs to figure out the probability he'd win the hand.

The first step is to put his opponent on a range of hands. Sometimes, you can figure out exactly what your opponent must have by the betting or tells. Most of the time, you're left to guess a little. In this situation, the other player probably has a very strong hand, but there's a chance he's bluffing or even semi-bluffing.

The strongest hand our hero could be facing is three kings. He has 11 outs to win the pot - every diamond but the 2d, and three queens. But even if our hero makes his flush or straight, his opponent could still win by making a full house or quads on the last card. I could calculate the probability by hand, but I don't need to.

Instead, I head to the Internet and one of the many free poker odds calculators, such as the one at twodimes.net. Enter "Kd Jd 2c" in the box labeled "Board" and "Ad Td" and "Ks Kc" under "Hands", and click submit. The result says that Ad-Td wins under 34% of the time - less than the 40+% that would make a call the right play. If our hero knows that his opponent had three kings, he should fold. The probabilities for the other possible three-of-a-kinds are the same.

But what if he's up against two pair - kings and jacks? Using the poker calculator again, his probability of winning would be 44%. That's enough to make calling correct. Our hero might also be against other two pairs, which he'd beat a little less often (42%), or A-K (46%). He might even already be ahead if he's against an aggressive player who would semi-bluff with something like Q-T (81%) or Qd-9d (82%).

Having calculated the probabilities of winning, our hero is now left with the subjective part of the answer, guessing the probabilities of what the other player has. I would guess that it's more than twice as likely that the player has two pair, or A-K, or even some weaker hand than that he has three of a kind. And I would guess that maybe 5% to 10% of the time, Ad-Td is actually ahead. I told our hero that, based on the numbers, I would have called.

Our hero did call, and the other player had K-J, giving our hero a 44% chance of winning the hand. The turn card was the 2d, but the river was a jack and our hero's flush lost to a full house. The river card was a tough break, but playing by the numbers, he still made the right play.

It's good to know the numbers, but it's equally important to know how to get them. And if you use the available tools whenever you aren't sure, you'll start to remember them when they come up at the table. In poker, every tool in your toolbox brings you one step closer to mastery of the game.

by

Andy Bloch

Play No Limit Holdem with Andy Block at Full Tilt Poker